Black sees signs for optimism but warns of possible hard winter

Pointing to low vaccination numbers locally, Dr. Brad Black warned that the county could see continued suffering and death from COVID-19 as winter approaches.

About 42 percent of the population eligible is vaccinated against the disease, according to the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services. Statewide, that figure is 53 percent. While the amount of COVID-19 cases decreased in recent weeks, the number of people stricken with the illness remains well above where it was this time last year.

“I would like to believe we will see a continued downward trend, but when you look at the factors I have real concerns that if we’re not careful we’re going to suffer,” Black told the Lincoln County Health Board on Oct. 12.

Temperatures are dropping, Black said, meaning people would begin heading back inside for activities and socialization. It was an echo of the year prior, when Black publicly worried that the winter months would fuel the spread of the coronavirus.

That proved true, and Lincoln County, which was largely spared the first wave of the pandemic, saw cases skyrocket.

And that was before the more contagious and deadly delta variant became a factor. County health department officials at the meeting said the overwhelming majority of local patients contracted the delta variant. Even board member Debra Armstrong, who questioned the severity of COVID-19 last year, acknowledged the virus had become more dangerous.

“It is much more deadly than the last one we had and it is killing people, younger people,” Armstrong said.

Black said he is hopeful the downward trend of cases continues. His tentative optimism is in line with recent modeling done on the trajectory of the pandemic. Last month, a group of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the scenario they favored for the winter showed COVID-19 cases declining nationwide into spring.

That scenario was one of four created using a mix of nine models. The scenario assumes children begin to get vaccinated and no new highly contagious mutation of the coronavirus appears on the scene.

“I think a lot of people have been tending to think that with this surge, it just is never going to get better. And so maybe I just need to stop worrying about it and take risks. But I think these projections show us there is a light at the end of the tunnel," Justin Lessler of the University of North Carolina told National Public Radio in September.

The researchers cautioned that the models are just that, models, and come with a degree of uncertainty. Regional variations likely also could complicate the picture. Lessler told NPR he was concerned about a resurgence of the virus, particularly in western states.

Black told the county health board he was concerned as well with the potential for the protection offered by vaccines to wane. Booster shots help, but how effective the vaccines will prove in the long run remains unknown, he said.

“…Keep in mind that there are still a lot of people with waning immunity in the vaccinated world. That’s going to continue to surface over time,” he said.

Black said he understood that residents were tired of the pandemic in general. The onus was on officials to continue focusing on public health, he said.

“We’ve already lost entirely too many people, as far as I’m concerned, that didn’t need to die,” he said.

As of last week, Lincoln County had seen 53 deaths from COVID-19. The bulk of local fatalities occurred since July, when the delta variant became the most common form of the virus in the country.

“It’s something in public health we need to take much more seriously,” Black said. “We need to get back to working on this. We all want to walk away. We’re tired of it. But the reality is the delta variant has changed the picture and it’s not over.”