Poll: Daines running away, Zinke ahead slightly

The top races in Montana look like they’re going red according to the state’s only public opinion poll released Friday, with the U.S. House race much closer than the Senate.

The poll of 410 Montanans gave Republican Ryan Zinke a 7-point lead in the race for the state’s sole U.S. House seat. Zinke garnered the support of 39.8 percent of all respondents support while his Democratic opponent, former aide to U.S. Sen. Max Baucus John Lewis, scored 32.9 percent.

Montana State University political science professor David Parker noted there was good news in the numbers for the Lewis camp. Results gave Lewis a slight edge in the retired vote, with 45.5 percent of respondents older than 62 supporting him over Zinke.

“Older voters are really important because older voters show up,” he said. “If a Democrat does good with them, that’s a good sign.”

Parker added that Lewis faces an uphill battle as a Democrat in Montana, and that he’ll need to get the support of independent voters to win this November.

While the House numbers gave an edge to Zinke, the Senate results seemed to indicate the century-long run of the Democratic control of the U.S. Senate seats is set to end.

The results gave Republican Steve Daines a 16-point lead over Democrat Amanda Curtis -- 46.7 percent to 30.6 percent. Just more than two percent said they’d vote for Libertarian Roger Roots, while the remaining 20 percent said they were undecided.

“It’s just supposed to be a Republican year,” said University of Montana political science professor Jeffrey Greene.

Parker agreed, saying most national forecasters have long thought Daines would run away with the Montana Senate seat, even before Democrat incumbent John Walsh dropped out after a plagiarism scandal.

“Certainly that lead has only grown,” Parker said.

Curtis, who served one term in the state legislature, replaced Walsh in August and hasn’t had a major campaign presence, with her first ad appearing just yesterday.

Moving down the ballot, incumbents appeared to have the edge in the state Supreme Court races, though a majority of the voters said they were undecided.

The poll carries a 5 percent margin of error.