Election 2010: GOP hopes to pick up seats in Legislature

Doorbells and phones are ringing across Montana as candidates battle for the 125 seats up for grabs in the next Legislature.

The noise can easily obscure what’s at stake: 25 seats in the Senate, 100 in the House, and the chance to influence the lives of ordinary Montanans over the next two years.

Contestants in both major parties have their marching orders. For Democrats, the message is that Montana has dodged the deep deficits and double-digit unemployment that have hammered other states, thanks to the prudent policies of a Democratic governor and his followers. For Republicans, the call is for smaller government and greater development of Montana’s natural resources, especially energy.

How well those themes will resonate is hard to guess, especially in races where personalities and relationships often matter more. But some longtime observers say the state’s slow-moving economy could give Republicans a shot at grabbing control of both houses of the Legislature.

Bob Brown, a former Republican legislator, secretary of state and candidate for governor, sees his party grabbing a majority in the state House, which was split 50-50 among Republicans and Democrats in the last session. The GOP could also expand its 27-23 lead in the Senate, he said.

That could give the GOP more leverage in the wrangling with Democrats over how best to develop Montana’s energy and other resources to create jobs and help balance the state’s checkbook.

If the Republicans do win both houses, Brown predicts they will push hard for development of Montana’s coal, oil and natural gas resources. He sees Democrats fighting to promote “clean” and renewable energy sources like the wind.

Gov. Brian Schweitzer, the popular Democrat heading into his final session, is already shaping the energy debate. A promoter of “clean coal” technology, he pushed the state Land Board last spring to approve the leasing of vast state coal holdings in the Otter Creek area near Ashland.

The deal, he says, would add billions to the state’s treasury over the next 30 years, and he’s hinting that much of that money could be spent on public schools and universities.

But Brown says pressure from Republicans for more energy development, and pushback from environmentally-minded Democrats, could put Schweitzer in a tenuous position with his own party.

Schweitzer could also find himself between conservatives calling for cuts in spending and liberals fighting to defend or expand dollars for schools and social services, Brown said.

Brown’s prediction of Republican gains is shared by two longtime political observers, professors Craig Wilson, of Montana State University-Billings, and Jim Lopach, of the University of Montana in Missoula.

Neither, however, is willing to predict big GOP margins. Of the 125 legislative seats at stake, they say only about a dozen are tossups.

“It’s really a small number of races that are truly competitive,” Wilson said.

Nationally, midterm elections often favor parties out of power. Frustration with the nation’s economy could help Montana Republicans too, Wilson and Lopach said. But both caution against making too much of grand strategies in local races where personal relationships matter.

“I think it really comes down to going door-to-door and handing out leaflets and talking to people,” Lopach said. “That’s just the nature of legislative politics in Montana. So I think there can be some surprises because of that.”

The battle for legislative control is sure to be won or lost in districts with a history of swinging back and forth between the parties. Party leaders see tough fights across the state.

“I guess we’re going nose to nose,” said Martin Kidston, a spokesman for Montana Democrats. “But we do feel confident.”

One legislative race getting statewide attention this fall is in Billings, where 30-year-old Democrat Kendall Van Dyk hopes to trade his House seat for a Senate seat held by incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Brown, 59. The contest could break records for campaign spending.

It may also offer a preview of coming legislative battles over energy development.

Brown, formerly in the oil business, challenged Schweitzer unsuccessfully for governor two years ago. Back then, Schweitzer attacked Brown for his support of the oil industry, and Van Dyk is doing the same this fall by promoting renewable energy and promising to close what he sees as tax loopholes for out-of-state oil companies.

Brown favors an “all of the above” approach to energy production and resource development to create jobs. He also supports reducing taxes on small businesses to help stimulate growth.

In the end, the outcome in that race and others could depend on which party’s voters turn out on Election Day. Bowen Greenwood, executive director of Montana’s Republican Party, said the GOP has set a goal of marshaling 10,000 new voters to the polls in November.

Regardless of which party wins controls the Legislature, Bob Brown predicts that neither will be strong enough to dictate its agenda.

“We’ll have to have some brokering and that has been a common theme in Montana politics,” Brown said. “Frankly, that’s not necessarily bad. Sometimes worthwhile solutions can be reached through the old political art of compromise.”

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(The Community News Service is a project of the University of Montana School of Journalism).