Pandemic

From 1918-1919 influenza - flu - killed more people than were killed during World War I. The flu death toll in that two-year period is estimated at between 20 million and 40 million people. It has been called the most devastating epidemic in world history.

We haven't seen anything on that disastrous scale during the past 87 years.

Perhaps that is why avian flu or bird flu or H5N1 has health officials and government officials worldwide in a tither.

During the past couple of years, a small number of people in Asia have become ill with a strain of flu that normally affects birds. Most if not all of these people have gotten the illness from birds - not from other people.

For those people who do get it, the bird flu strain of flu appears to be dangerous, with a high death rate among those who become ill. Thus far, there have only been 103 deaths worldwide. That's right. 103 deaths.

The actual concern is that "bird flu" could cause a pandemic - a dangerous, worldwide outbreak of illness if the flu virus changes or mutates so people can get it easily from each other and not just from birds.

That hasn't happened yet, and it may never happen.

If it were to happen, public health experts warn that the disease could spread to kill 200,000 to 1.9 million people in the U.S., and 180 million to 360 million people world-wide. That's why emergency people are taking steps to deal with a pandemic type of disease and not necessarily "bird flu."

We had a valuable exercise recently here in Lincoln County so that emergency responders, medical people, law enforcement and government officials become prepared to deal with a breakout of disease such as the world experienced 1918-1919.

It may not happen. Especially if people take precautions to prevent the spread of viruses and flus such as washing their hands often during times of exposure to ill people or even staying home when they are sick instead of spreading their illness to the rest of us.

The concern with "bird flu" is the unknown. It is carried by birds, which range all over the planet. And some people are susceptible to the bug. On Thursday, a 26-year-old Chinese woman was released from the hospital and said to be cured of a bout of "bird flu" in which she suffered from high fever and pneumonia-like illness. She was sick for a month after being diagnosed with "bird flu."

Researchers are saying that H5N1, the "bird flu" striking fear worldwide, has a hard time attaching itself to the lining of the nose, throat and upper airways - unlike other flus - but readily attacks the cells deep in the lungs. Not good locally where we have a couple of thousand people with a serious lung impairment.

Right now that is not happening on a wide scale level among humans. The World Health Organization is confirming 184 cases over the past three years and three months. The 103 deaths come from those 184 cases. And the virus spreads easily among birds as I mentioned before.

The U.S. media is hammering news story after news story about avian virus, bird flu or H5N1. That is because of concerns among the medical community for the way viruses in general mutate and the way this one is spread — via birds.

But is hasn't been seen in the United States or North America or Central America thus far.

Being prepared is great, boring us into complacency could be dangerous and irresponsible.

Remember SARS? It, too, was the next pandemic.

Keep informed, get involved in preparations and practices to handle such an emergency. But we're not there yet. And it's not here yet. — Roger Morris